Calibração por temperatura, limiares de abstenção e congelamento (tarefas 60–62)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

tests/test_calibrate.py

@@ -0,0 +1,38 @@
+import json
+from pathlib import Path
+
+import pytest
+
+from analysis.calibrate import apply_temperature, choose_threshold, fit_temperature
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+
+
+def test_temperature_preserves_ranking_and_sums_to_one():
+    p = {"a": 0.7, "b": 0.2, "c": 0.1}
+    q = apply_temperature(p, 2.0)
+    assert sum(q.values()) == pytest.approx(1.0)
+    assert max(q, key=q.get) == "a" and q["a"] < p["a"]  # T > 1 suaviza
+
+
+def test_fit_softens_overconfident_model():
+    rows = [{"gold": "a", "probabilities": {"a": 0.99, "b": 0.01}}] * 6 + \
+           [{"gold": "b", "probabilities": {"a": 0.99, "b": 0.01}}] * 4
+    assert fit_temperature(rows) > 1.0
+
+
+def test_threshold_respects_risk():
+    rows = [{"gold": "a", "pred": "a", "probabilities": {"a": 0.9, "b": 0.1}}] * 98 + \
+           [{"gold": "b", "pred": "a", "probabilities": {"a": 0.6, "b": 0.4}}] * 2 + \
+           [{"gold": "b", "pred": "a", "probabilities": {"a": 0.95, "b": 0.05}}] * 1
+    s = choose_threshold(rows)
+    assert s["confident_wrong_rate"] <= 0.02
+
+
+def test_frozen_files_unchanged():
+    """Depois do congelamento (tarefa 62), nada do que foi congelado pode mudar."""
+    frozen = ROOT / "config" / "frozen.json"
+    if not frozen.exists():
+        pytest.skip("configuração ainda não congelada")
+    from tools.freeze import current_hashes
+    assert current_hashes() == json.loads(frozen.read_text())["files"]